Press Release:
(Leesburg, VA) – As we reported earlier in the week, traffic trends to all three channels in on-premise deteriorated during the 4-week period ending 12/1/13, and not surprisingly, alcohol trends have also weakened:
– On-premise alcohol volumes were -3.7% during 3Q, improved to -2.8% during the recent 4 weeks ending November 3rd, but fell to -4.2% during the 4 weeks ending December 1st, matching their weakest level of ‘13. In terms of the specific alcohol categories:
– Beer: Beer volumes were -4.9% in 3Q (weakest quarter of the year), improved slightly to -4.0% during the 4 weeks ending 11/03, but fell to -5.5% during the 4 weeks ending 12/01, their weakest level of any 4-week period in the year. Comparing y/y volume growth for the last two 4-week periods, the deterioration was driven primarily by bars/clubs and casual dining: in bars/clubs, beer volumes fell from -5.9% to -6.3%; in casual dining, fell from -4.0% to -6.1%; and in fine dining, showed a slight improvement from -2.0% to -1.5%.
– Spirits: Spirits volumes were -3.0% in 3Q (their weakest quarter of the year), improved slightly to -2.3% during the 4 weeks ending 11/03, but fell to -3.8% during the 4 weeks ending 12/01, close to their weakest level of any 4-week period in the year (only February was weaker). Comparing y/y volume growth for the last two 4-week periods, the majority of the deterioration in spirits volumes was driven by the casual dining channel: in bars/clubs, spirits volumes improved from -4.3% to -3.6%; in casual dining, weakened from -3.1% to -5.1%; in fine dining, showed a slight softening from +1.1% to +0.4%.
– Wine: Wine volumes were -1.3% in 3Q (weakest quarter of the year), improved slightly to -0.5% during the 4 weeks ending 11/03, but fell to -1.6% during the 4 weeks ending 12/01. Comparing y/y volume growth for the last two 4-week periods: in bars/clubs, wine volumes weakened from -3.7% to -5.3% (though should be noted bars/clubs are very small channel for wine, accounting for just 4% of wine volumes); in casual dining, weakened from -0.4% to -1.9%; in fine dining, showed a slight downtick from -0.2% to -0.6%.
– Given we saw overall retail sales and consumer discretionary spending weak in November, it will be particularly important to monitor whether there is any type of turn-around in the coming weeks as we head further into the critical holiday season.