Press Release:
(Leesburg, VA) – The following is a monthly news release from GuestMetrics LLC, providing data on on-premise beverage alcohol trends.
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Ø Traffic: On-Premise traffic started off 2015 on a strong note at +2.6% for the 4-week period ending 1/25/15, but then decelerated to -0.7% during the most recent 4 weeks thru 2/22/15, due to the series of winter storms east of the Mississippi over the past month. YTD, overall on-premise traffic is +0.9% (versus -0.7% from ‘14), and in terms of the main channels: Casual Dining is +1.9% YTD (vs. -0.4% in ‘14), Bars/Clubs is +0.6% YTD (vs. -1.9% in ‘14), and Fine Dining is -0.1% YTD (vs. -1.6% in ‘14).
Ø It will be key to monitor trends in the coming weeks to see whether improvements in the US economy, lower gas prices and the end of winter storms allows the improved trends we were seeing in January to resume.
Ø Beer: Beer volumes started off 2015 on a much better note at +0.3% during the 4-week period ending 1/22/15, but then decelerated to -4.1% during the latest 4 weeks as on-premise traffic slowed. Year-to-date, beer volumes are -2.0%, an improvement from the -3.4% during 2014
Ø Premium Light’s y/y share has moderated from -1.9 during 2014 to -1.3 YTD; conversely, Craft’s y/y share gains have slowed from +1.8 during 2014 to +1.0 YTD; Imports’ y/y share loss worsened slightly from -0.3 points during 2014 to -0.4 YTD; and Cider’s y/y share gain slowed slightly from +0.5 during 2014 to +0.4 YTD
Ø While Pale Lagers continue to lose share at the hands of the various Ales and Cider, the scale of the y/y share losses have slowed significantly for Pale Lagers, going from -2.2 during 2014 to only -1.3. IPA’s on the other hand, saw their y/y share gains moderate from +1.4 during 2014 to +1.2 YTD. Additionally, the y/y share gains for Cider, Bitter Ales, Stout Ales, Amber Ales, Brown Ales, and Imperial Ales all slowed slightly
Ø Spirits: Spirits volumes started off 2015 on a much better note at +3.1% during the 4-week period ending 1/22/15, but fell to -0.9% during the latest 4 weeks as on-premise traffic slowed. Year-to-date, spirits volumes are +1.0%, a solid improvement from the -0.3% seen during the full year 2014
Ø In terms of y/y volume growth for the specific spirits categories during year-to-date: Irish +12% (vs. +7% in ‘14), Bourbons/Blends +5% (+13% in ‘14), Brandy/Cognac +7% (+2% in ‘14), Tequila +5% (-1% in ‘14), Gin +1% (-1% in ‘14), Vodka -1.0% (-4% in ‘14), Canadian -0.4% (-7% in ‘14), Scotch -6% (-6% in ‘14), Rum -4% (-7% in ‘14), and Cordials -10% (-14% in ’14).
Ø Domestic Craft Spirits continues to take strong share, and appears to be picking up momentum. In y/y terms, Domestic Craft gained +2.5 points of volume share year-to-date (vs. +1.9 points in 2014); Imported Spirits lost -2.9 share points year-to-date (vs. -1.9 points in 2014); and Domestic Non-Craft is also picking up steam, gaining +0.4 points of volume share year-to-date (vs. flat in 2014)
Ø Wine: Wine sales were up +2.9% during the first 4 weeks of the year, but then decelerated markedly to -0.6% during the latest 4 weeks with the on-premise traffic slowdown. Year-to-date, wine sales are up +1.1%, a slight improvement from the +0.7% in wine sales during the full year 2014
Ø During the last 8 weeks, the largest y/y share gainers were Red Blend, Sauvignon Blanc, Cabernet Sauvignon, Pinot Noir, Prosecco, and Moscato, while the largest share donors were Merlot, Champagne, and Riesling
About GuestMetrics LLC
GuestMetrics collects check-level data from the Point-of-Sales (POS) systems of over ten thousand restaurants & bars closely representative of the broad on-premise sector across geographies, and with respect to the make-up of casual dining, bars/clubs, fine dining, and lodging. GuestMetrics turns billions of raw transactions into intelligible information that is transforming the business operations of everyone from the independently-owned bar/restaurant on the corner, to multi-national chains, to the food & beverage companies that supply them. Please visit www.GuestMetrics.com for more information and to schedule a free demonstration.